:: THE ILLUSION OF IMPACT ::

It may not seem like a newsworthy event on the surface, but Bauer Hockey’s 2010 Athlete Summit reveals a lot when it comes to the value of a few NHL goaltenders currently under the fantasy microscope.

Bauer invited Patrick Kane, Steve Stamkos, Erik Johnson, Ryan Kesler, Eric Staal, Phil Kessel, Tyler Seguin, Luke Schenn, Jeff Carter and goaltender Henrik Lundqvist to hit the ice and demo the latest line of equipment on the morning of Wednesday, July 21.

Bauer’s Facebook page published a photo of Lundqvist showing off a new color pattern for the One-100′s. By now, we are all aware of the NHL’s approval of the new leg pad measurements. In a nutshell, the new rules limit the distance a pad can reach from the surface of the ice depending on the size of the goaltender.

When I first saw the photo, it automatically brought up the issue of Lundqvist playing without his usual massive thigh-rises. I’ve discussed it before, and due to value he possesses, it will continue to be an area of interest for the rest of the summer.

Although I can’t be certain if these specific pads are just a demo pair or specifically customized to meet the new LDS (limiting distance size) requirements, the photo still poses some very important questions.

Will Lundqvist begin to step off his goal line and play higher in his crease?

Naturally. At this point, he almost has to, lest he falls victim to exposing more of the net on a more consistent basis.

Without a doubt, how he compensates for the new leg pad sizing system will be the most important on-ice aspect of his game. We all know the Lundqvist style – sit on the goal line and pick pucks out of the air with that extra time and space. Block as much as possible. So knowing full well that he might appear slightly smaller in the net, the scales tilt in the shooter’s favor just a little bit more.

That means there’s also a good chance his performance in games could suffer. So all that is left to decipher now is how long it might be an issue, and whether Lundqvist is keen enough to adjust and prove that there’s no issue at all.

It’s a daunting task for such a regimen goalie, but I think Lundqvist is an elite talent, both mentally and technically. He’s good enough to adjust in a timely and effective manner. I do think he will play a little higher in his crease, but not all the time. In many situations and games, and depending on his confidence at the time, he will revert back to his more comfortable style of sitting back in his crease.

So don’t expect to see any drastic changes, but do expect to see subtle ones, especially early in the season. Aside from playing higher, you might also see him narrow his stance by just a sliver. This is what is often seen by goalies that feel they need a little bit better net coverage and a little more power when pushing laterally. It’s a more powerful, active stance, something that I think Lundqvist would really benefit from.

The Bauer Athlete Summit may have been nothing more than a fun and friendly skate with some other elite stars, but internally, Lundqvist may have handled it with a little more urgency. Knowing the competitive nature of King Henrik, he probably took every shot quite seriously, especially if Carter ripped a few his way.

It may have been his first-ever skate with NHL players in slightly smaller pads. It may have been the first time in years he’s felt uncomfortable in a set of pads. It may have been the first time making a concerted effort to step off his goal line.

No matter which way you see it, don’t be tricked by the illusion of impact. The new leg pad sizing guidelines only affect a small percentage of goalies. It’s not known how much shorter his new leg pads will have to be, but the truth is that it will be very minimal.

Yes, today could be seen as the first step in determining his actual value for the 2010-11 season. And even the smaller leg pads might turn out to be an issue, they could also turn out to be a benefit. His style could be refined and he could be even more valuable than he was last season.

—[ THG ]—

With Lundqvist occupying one blue crease, Bauer of course brought in another goalie to fill the other net. Take a gander at who you think that goalie may have been.

My first guess? Tomas Vokoun. Nope. Ohh….what?? It has to be Tim Thomas. Nope.

Hmm…oh hey, they must have been unavailable or something. How about someone non-European, who isn’t necessarily a big star, but rocks something other than the One-100′s. Brent Johnson?! Nope.

Chris Mason?? Nope. Okay…forget it. Just tell me!

It was Devan Dubnyk.

Devan Dubnyk? HUH. That’s … interesting. Good for him.

The illusion of impact – a concept all keen fantasy goalie managers understand. Goalies improve and thrive on the most subtle of instances. What does it mean to get a one-way contract deal with the Oilers, then be invited to the Athlete Summit a few weeks later? What kind of impact does a goalie experience when these things happen at his age?

Even in a non-competitive atmosphere, the competitive goalie will gain (or lose) confidence in a situation where some of the best players in the world are on the ice and taking shots. Dubnyk may not be the most polished or experienced AHL goalie, but he’s certainly competitive enough to evolve into a quality NHL goalie. It just might take him a few more years to get to that point. 

But there are more pressing issues at hand. Until Jeff Deslauriers is finally re-signed (he’s still an RFA) and Nikolai Khabibulin is no longer considered a borderline scofflaw, an NHL job beckons.

Khabibulin’s court date was delayed again and will now be held in late-September. There’s a very good chance that he won’t be in shape for training camp, meaning the odds that Dubnyk plays NHL games this season are now very high. As such, he has the chance to be a total diamond in the rough.

Do you see it now? The sliding scale stretches very far in both directions for Dubnyk. He’s not going anywhere for two more years and in that time, he’s probably going to play a lot of games. The rest will be up to his ability to execute and improve, but the doors are wide open.

This sort of thing happens all the time with goalies all over the world. The key is to recognize the subtle moments in a season when a goalie’s value is impacted and then accurately gauge how slightly or severe that goalie could be impacted. More often than not, the impact is rather minimal.