Jun 30th
By now, everyone knows that the market for goalies on July 1 is pretty brutal. There’s too many goalies seeking a solid gig, but only a few NHL teams desperately need their starting role filled. Maybe a handful of other teams could use a serviceable backup, but there’s close to 15 capable goalies available.
As a pro goalie scout, I could care less where an unrestricted free agent MIGHT end up. I care only about what they do once they arrive at their new destination. But to follow through on a reader’s request, below is my ranking of the Top-15 unrestricted free agent goalies by their overall skills value.
*UPDATE - Leighton has signed a two-year deal this afternoon, so he’s no longer an UFA. But we’ll leave him on the list for reference purposes.
1. EVGENI NABOKOV - He’s the most prized and most talented goalie available, but comes with the highest price tag. Nabokov brings a team close to 70 starts along with an efficient, traditional butterfly style and guaranteed composure in the playoffs. Despite the negative spin on his post-season play, he’s still a clutch winner with the mental toughness needed to withstand a grueling regular season and deep playoff run. Because so few teams want to spend any money, don’t be surprised if he’s enticed by some tasty KHL contracts. There’s nothing wrong with spending a year in Russia, right Ray Emery?
2. MARTY TURCO - All statistics aside, Turco’s value with the Stars was through the roof for two years before and after the NHL Lockout. But once Sergei Zubov shed his Stars jersey for good, Turco’s game and overall value started to slide. Without the same defensive support in front of him, he no longer had the glamorous win-loss record or goals-against average. Then the mental mistakes, turnovers and lack of focus started to pile up. My highly anticipated Turco Turnaround was more like a half-twist, as his save percentage improved from .898 to .913 and his goals-against average slightly dropped. Still, his tremendous butterfly skills and puck-moving ability makes him a very valuable 1A or full-fledged starter. He’s the best skater at the goalie position and he’s still capable of taking a team to the Stanley Cup Finals, but not unless he’s given a perfect scenario on a very good defensive team.
3. DAN ELLIS – His rights were just traded to Montreal on Tuesday, and it sounds like he hopes to sign there sooner rather than later. On an NHL Live interview today, Ellis spoke about just how excited he was to be acquired by the Habs. ”It would be an honor to wear their jersey,” he said. He followed that up by commenting on the prospect of being partnered with Carey Price. “It’s nice to be a starter, but I think most importantly, as a hockey player, you grow up wanting to win the Stanley Cup. And if that’s being a partner and sharing the load with another established goaltender, then that’s the best way to go as well.” As you can see, Ellis simply wants to win. And that is just one of the reasons that Ellis is such an underrated goalie. For a lot more of my thoughts on Ellis, check out my Twitter feed here.
4. CHRIS MASON - A serviceable 1A goalie with a history of late-season hot streaks for a playoff spot (one in, one out), Mason played in a career-high 61 games last season and went 30-22-8 with a 2.53 goals-against average and .913 save percentage. In the 2008-09 season, Mason posted a 27-21-7 record with a 2.41 goals-against average and .916 save percentage. Those are very consistent numbers for a guy that still doesn’t get the credit he truly deserves. In a world of “what have you done for me lately,” Mason still holds a strong reputation around the league for his winning pedigree. He relies more on reflexes than size to stop the puck and he’s a durable, hard-working goalie that plays with a lot of energy and gives his team a chance to win. He’ll definitely find a job somewhere and fight for a starting role.
5. ANTERO NIITTYMAKI – Another underrated, smaller goalie that relies on reflexes had really good stretches last season, but just barely failed to make the playoffs. Niittymaki, who was the 2006 Winter Olympics Tournament MVP, played great in the first half of the season. He posted a 21-18-5 record along with a 2.87 goals-against average and .909 save percentage and continued his total dominance of the Atlanta Thrashers organization with four more wins against his divisional foe. When I scouted him in a game vs. Colorado back on Dec. 11, I was so impressed with his ability to challenge shooters, read plays correctly and displays a Halak-style calmness. Only Wojtek Wolski’s wrist shot eluded him in the shootout. He’s clearly a serviceable 1A goalie with the ability to hold a starting role for a full season.
6. JOSE THEODORE – Thanks to a terrific home record in the second half of last season, Theodore was able to build and pad his reputation as a serviceable 1A veteran. In his traditional manner, Theodore still has great flair, reflexes and butterfly skills. Although he’s considered as a smaller goalie past his prime, Theodore still has the ability to compete with the young studs and play plenty of games in a row, or coming off the bench. I see his value being similar to when he was signed by Colorado, but without the expectations to re-gain his Hart Trophy form. Now he’s seen as a goalie with the ability to go on a roll for short stretches and mentor a youngster. Expect him to find a low-paying job as a backup on a team that likes the fact he’s such a positive presence in the local hockey community.
7. JOHAN HEDBERG - Last I heard, negotiations with Atlanta weren’t going great, and that comes as a surprise. There has been a lot of loyalty on both sides of that coin, but it looks like the Moose’s days as a Thrasher are numbered. Where he goes from here, nobody knows. But he is still an extremely solid and serviceable backup goalie worth signing. He’s a perfect mentor for a younger goalie and he brings energy and a strong work ethic off the bench. He’s capable of making clutch saves and winning games that can pull a team out of a funk and put them back on track. He played a lot more than expected last season, going 21-16-6 in 47 games with a 2.62 goals-against average and .915 save percentage. The Thrashers leaned on him heavily in March during their playoff push, as he went 6-6-0 and allowed more than three goals against just three times. Both of his shutouts came in that stretch, including a 33-save season finale blanking of his former team, the Penguins.
8. MICHAEL LEIGHTON - Not much needs to be said about Leighton’s run with the Flyers. For those that follow the Guild closely, you know we screamed bloody murder when the Hurricanes hesitated to give him starts during Cam Ward’s injury. When they finally chose to roll with Manny Legace instead of Leighton, he persevered and received a little luck when Brian Boucher and Ray Emery suffered serious injuries. Leighton finally had a chance to prove his worth and did just that, thanks in large part to consecutive starts. He notched four-game winning streaks in December, January and February before going on that magical playoff run. Leighton posted a combined shutout with Boucher in Game 5 against the Bruins, won four games in a row to help eliminate Montreal, and played well at home before Patrick Kane knifed him in the gut with the Stanley Cup-clinching goal in Game 6. That goal will haunt him for the rest of his life, but it won’t totally destroy the value he has as a 1B goalie with great streaky upside. If the Flyers don’t re-sign him, it might be tough to find a job, but it won’t stop Leighton from working his tail off in the search for redemption.
9. MARTIN BIRON - Although many expected Biron to be Carey Price’s new backup in Montreal, his true value is once again being put under the microscope by teams around the league. Even though he has played well in an Islanders uniform, he posted a 9-14-4 record with a .896 save percentage and lowly 3.27 goals-against average. His skills are considered as nothing more than capable of holding down a very solid backup role. Similar to his issues finding a home last summer, history could repeat itself, as there are better options for teams that can spend a little more, or other options for teams that want to spend a little less. I think Biron is a great character and backup goalie, but his footwork is way too slow and his overall game is not quick enough to be a starting goalie.
10. PATRICK LALIME – The former Ottawa Senators and Chicago Blackhawks goaltender only started 13 games in his second season behind Ryan Miller. Because of his limited games played, Lalime was unable to shake off the rust and get into a rhythm, as he went 4-8-2 with a 2.81 goals-against average and .907 save percentage. It’s never easy for a veteran to play well enough behind a workhorse to really garner interest from other teams, so Lalime will have to get a little lucky to find a job that gives him a chance to play 15-20 games this season. Over the last three years, Lalime has started just a total of 30, 21 and then 13 games.
11. YANN DANIS – Nobody likes being Martin Brodeur’s backup, but for a young goalie that is just looking to build up his reputation as an NHL-capable goalie, Danis would take just about any job out there. He showed a lot of promise with the Islanders two seasons ago alongside Joey MacDonald, going 10-17-3 with a solid .910 save percentage and 2.86 goals-against average. When he was shipped to the Devils, it was very clear he would hardly play, but it allowed him to develop the skills needed to play well coming off the bench. Danis did just that, going 3-2-1 with a .923 save percentage and 2.05 goals-against average. But because he just recently turned 27, Danis’ only hope for more NHL minutes is to find a team where he has a chance to win the backup role in training camp.
12. ALEX AULD – The epitome of a journeyman, Auld spent another season with two teams. Despite what the stats dictate, he played well with the Stars, going 9-6-3 with a 3.00 goals-against average and .894 save percentage. Once traded to the Rangers, he lost his only start and was caught in the mix with Chad Johnson and Matt Zaba. Since he’s clearly not going to be Henrik Lundqvist’s next backup, it’s unclear where Auld will end up playing this season. He’s a cheap, serviceable backup with a great work ethic and good size. I’ve always considered him better than he seems, but since his days with the Canucks, he’s been unable to hold down a consistent role.
13. ANDREW RAYCROFT – Although he can come off the bench and compete at a high level, it never seems to last more than a few games. Raycroft is a solid and smooth butterfly goalie with good mechanics and situational awareness, but has a weak glove hand and never seems to show energy or excitement in the crease. His calm demeanor leads to complacency and he’s not the most dedicated guy in practice. He went 9-5-1 with a 2.42 goals-against average and .911 save percentage behind Roberto Luongo, including a three-game winning streak in November that kicked off with an 18-save shutout against his former team, the Avalanche.
14. JOEY MACDONALD - A fan-favorite while he was with the Islanders and Maple Leafs, MacDonald was shipped to Anaheim when J-S Giguere was sent back the other way. He only played five games with the Leafs, going 1-4-o with a 3.20 goals-against average and .892 save percentage. MacDonald brings a solid veteran presence to a team and can hold down the fort when injuries occur. But when Anaheim acquired Curtis McElhinney from Calgary for Vesa Toskala, Joey stayed entrenched in the AHL. He might garner some interest from a few NHL teams, but he may not find a home until the other UFA goalies are taken care of first.
15. VESA TOSKALA – Everyone’s favorite goalie to hate, Toskala bounced from Toronto to Anaheim and then quickly up to Calgary in the final quarter of the season. He won both of his starts in a Flames uniform and seemed to find a niche as Kiprusoff’s backup. But with the signing of Swedish goalie Henrik Karlsson to a one-way, one-year deal, Toskala is now headed back out to sea again with no real direction. It’s unclear which team will want to bring in a goalie that has struggled with confidence and consistency over the last three seasons, but he’s still considered an NHL-caliber goalie with valid backup skills.
OTHER UFA GOALIES AVAILABLE – Wade Dubielewicz, Manny Legace, Ray Emery (Avascular Necrosis), Manny Fernandez, Steve Valiquette (Russia)
NOTABLE RESTRICTED FREE AGENTS - Josh Harding, Antti Niemi, Ondrej Pavelec, Carey Price
Jun 22nd
Evgeni Nabokov’s reign in San Jose has finally come to an end. The Russian from Kazakhstan has won more games in the last three years than any other goalie, but now joins at least 20 UFA goalies seeking a new empire. I won’t speculate on where he goes or who they bring in as a replacement, but I will discuss what this does to San Jose’s goalie prospects, from a fantasy perspective of course.
Occam’s Razor says San Jose would look to replace Nabokov with another workhorse, like a Marty Turco. I say Turco because he’s really the only goalie that could not only log heavy minutes, but compensate for the loss of Rob Blake at the same time. He kills two birds with one stone thanks to his elite puck-moving skills, which allows the Sharks to transition from defense to offense much faster. And even though it plays no role in their decision, Eddy Belfour and Arturs Irbe were former Stars goalies that also played for the Sharks, so a relationship exists between both teams. Turco would certainly take a pay cut to play there, as it’s a perfect resting place for any goalie over 30.
San Jose could also bring in a goalie that is more cost-effective and can thrive and develop in a 1A-1B situation with Thomas Greiss. This could be way by trade during the Draft, or by signing an unrestricted free-agent like Dan Ellis, who also touts incredible stick-handling and puck-moving skills and ties with the Stars organization.
A 1A-1B situation is more effective in my opinion, as it allows for all goalies in the organization to take a step in their development. As stated on the Sharks’ website, the organization is very confident in their goalie depth chart, as they should:
“This decision boils down to a dedication of dollars in a salary cap system and under this system, teams can’t keep everyone. We are excited about the goaltenders coming up through our system and we will also keep an eye on assets that may become available in the coming weeks.”
Without knowing what San Jose will now spend on a goalie, Turco and Ellis are just two examples that reflect the high and low cost spectrum. Either way, expect Greiss to start at least 30 games, maybe 35, and continue to improve his NHL skills and overall confidence. And regardless of who San Jose ultimately acquires, here’s some insight on how it impacts Sharks goalies from a fantasy perspective:
1. Greiss’ one year and keeper league fantasy value just shot through the roof. He’s going to play at least 30 games next season, maybe even 35+. Only a workhorse like Turco would limit his games to a number on the low end of that scale and anyone else on the list of UFA’s would likely have to roll with a 1A-1B situation.
The good news is that the Sharks have strong faith in him. They not only recognize his high skill level, but his potential to develop into a starter as well. This is a huge boost of confidence for Greiss and exactly why I have been adamant in his #5 rank in my Top-100 Fantasy Prospects Rankings. Greiss clearly has the potential to be an elite goalie and if he performs well in camp and in his first few starts, it could be a very uplifting year for him. It’s a huge win for any of his keeper-league owners.
2. Alex Stalock also sees a tremendous boost in his long-term fantasy value. The kid is already special. Now he has the faith of a solid organization and more opportunity than ever before. Remember, he doesn’t have that hybrid, refined butterfly stance or style you see with all of the new-wave future stars like Rask, Gustavsson, Price, etc. But don’t let that trick you! Stalock’s game thrives on being much more of a positional goalie that reads plays like a wizard. He’s incredibly steady and focused and hard-working. He’s a big-save goalie and plays big in the crease. And he can still make the desperate save if needed.
Most scouting reports will discuss how Stalock has great size and a lot of strength, but an even stronger mind. He is VERY legitimate due to his history of leadership and playoff success, so his pro era is already off and running, thanks in large part to a great AHL rookie season. Expect him to log another year as an AHL workhorse this season, but now he’s only a year or two away from solid NHL duties. This is perfect, in my opinion, as there’s no rush, no pressure and low expectations. He just gets to play a ton of hockey and continue to refine his style a little bit. He’s a future NHL workhorse, and a successful one as well.
3. Henrik Karlsson’s trip to San Jose during their playoff run really paid off. Even though he is slated to play for Dynamo Riga in the KHL this season (thanks to Sentium for that update), a new contract allows San Jose to bring him over at any time. Harri Sateri’s value rises as well, and is a better suited to evolve into a long-term keeper due to his age and size. His new deal is similar to Karlsson’s and therefore increases his chances for more opportunity.
4. Tyson Sexsmith stays entrenched in Worcester. CapGeek.com has him making $65,000 in the AHL next season, so I don’t expect his fantasy value to rise at all behind Stalock. He’s not touted as having very high NHL potential and he’s still a work in progress with limited upside. But the move by San Jose still helps his cause.
Overall, the move completely shifts the market for goalies this summer and causes close to half of NHL teams to re-evaluate their current situation. I have to imagine you will probably see some dramatic literature out there over the next week as well, maybe trying to explain whether or not this was a planned move by the Sharks.
They just re-signed both Sateri and Karlsson in the last month and they are both legitimate prospects, so I understand where that line of reasoning comes from. But that’s not the case in this situation, as the moves are long-term, not short-term, so they are merely coincidences. The Sharks are going in a new direction due to salary cap issues, and since they have many strong prospects, they can compete without spending as much money as last year.
Dan Ellis is Distracted by Twitter: [...] School of Block [...]
: Evan,
We are working on that. It is not easy to be 100% accurate just by tracking
game photos....
Evan35: you guys need to start adding chest protectors to your padstracker notesSeptember Scouting Journal: [...] September 5, 2010 - Get to Know Prospect Robin Billingham [...]
Stevencshields: Really good take on the situation. I have spoken to Wayne Thomas over the summer and this was a...The Media and Hockey: Shooting the Messenger — Or Missing the Message? (Part 1 of 2) | devilsplayofftickets.com: [...] of those responses, a few merit special consideration. Justin’s well- articulated ...The Media and Hockey: Shooting the Messenger — Or Missing the Message? (Part 1 of 2) | The Hockey Writers: [...] of those responses, a few merit special consideration. Justin’s well- articulated ...: Ace,
I think it really depends on what the Predators have planned for Lindback.
Those two will...