Posts tagged ray emery

School of Block: Depth Chart Dementia

Jan 18th

Posted by Justin in Prospects

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Over the last week, the NHL was laden with situations where new faces created tighter spaces in the crease. And for scouts everywhere, it provided us with plenty of entertainment. I mean, what other choice did Dan Bylsma really have after John Curry allowed five goals on 14 shots against Vancouver on Saturday? He simply had to put in the 19-year-old Alex Pechursky, who was signed on an emergency basis. But for so many good reasons, it was the right choice.

Could you imagine the painstaking process of deciding which goalie to start after one is sudden injured or coming off a terrible performance? A coach’s ability to make good goalie decisions is admirable, for there are infinite factors to ponder, including age, experience, confidence, rust and even things like energy level in practices. But most of the time, coaches make easy decisions because the answer is hitting them in the face like a giant sack of doorknobs.

Even Senators coach Cory Clouston said, “Whatever goaltender is going to get us the win is the one we’re going to go with…” over the weekend. So how could you not expect Ottawa to keep rolling with Mike Brodeur, their 26-year-old AHL “prospect”? Pascal Leclaire is living out his “Band-Aid Boy” status and Brian Elliott has been a big disappointment, especially considering how strong he played in the second half of last season. At least they made the right decision by letting their former goalie coach Eli Wilson walk.

Clouston’s approach not only makes the most sense, it’s the most effective when having to handle depth chart issues in goal. Just ride the hot hand, regardless of all other factors. And remember – any time a goalie gets a string of starts in a row, he becomes a fantasy option worth noting. If he’s younger than 21, regardless of win or lose, he’s getting a boost in long-term value due to the experience gained. And since so many goalies either returned from or suffered an injury last week, it led to many more prospects experiencing NHL action sooner than expected.

JOHN CURRY

Thanks to Brent Johnson’s lower-body injury and Marc-Andre Fleury’s fractured finger, Curry ended up with the start against the Canucks on Saturday night. It did not go well at all, as he was lit up for five goals against on just 14 shots.

Curry started off with some solid confidence and movement, but it completely crumbled after Henrik Sedin banked a shot off his blocker arm and into the net. That goal virtually eliminated all of Curry’s confidence and focus, as he was not the same from that point on. Yes, the puck was bouncing like crazy, which does take a little blame off of his shoulders, but the fact remains that he was totally shook after allowing a weak goal.

Moving forward, Curry’s rank in the Top-100 Prospects Rankings will drop. I believe his size will be an issue at the NHL level, similar to what I see in Vesa Toskala and Jose Theodore. Curry does have a huge heart, amazing perseverance and a lot of other aspects of mental fortitude I really like, but after this game, his future is as a long-term keeper is not as bright. As long as he is with the Penguins, he won’t get much of an opportunity anyways.

ALEXANDER PECHURSKY

This was by far the most interesting and entertaining goalie story of the week. Pechursky, a 19-year-old Russian currently playing in his first WHL season, was signed by Pittsburgh to a one-day emergency deal. He came over from Russia to play in North America in December, so you know his head was spinning when the Penguins made the call.

But Pechursky thrived, stopping 12 of 13 shots in relief of Curry. Even though he had to wear Fleury’s Reebok Revokes (Alex’s current WHL pads were not legal for NHL play), Pechursky settled in nicely after a few scrambling saves and showed some real confidence and true puck-stopping skills. He was even named the game’s third star.

What does this do to his fantasy stock moving forward? To be honest, it’s still too early to consider him a Top-100 Keeper Prospect, but did legitimize his potential by putting his name on the map. This is exactly why I continually stress that teams need to give goalie prospects every opportunity possible to play NHL minutes. You never know what you have until you expose a goalie to the elements. And now the Penguins, if anything, know they have a prospect with real NHL potential improving his game over the next few years. No pressure, lots of upside. Score.

DUSTIN TOKARSKI

I absolutely loved what I saw from Tokarski in the third period of Tampa Bay’s game on Saturday. He came out with a ton of confidence, looked very composed and didn’t have hyper or overactive limbs. Tokarski has always displayed sharpness and mental fortitude rarely seen in such a young goaltender, but his 20-minute shutout was beyond impressive considering the circumstances. And with Mike Smith back in Tampa Bay due to his most recent injury, it looks like Tokarski will continue to stay up with the Lightning.

I’ll point to one play in particular in the third period, where Tokarski faced a sudden two-on-one break. Most goalies making their NHL debut in this situation would have gotten caught out of position, or simply a step behind. But Tokarski stood firm, displayed a ton of patience and forced the Panthers player with the puck to shoot it right at him. Tokarski didn’t even drop into the butterfly, which is his biggest strength. Instead he stood up and re-directed the puck out of harm’s way. It was flawless composure in his first real NHL test.

MIKE BRODEUR

What comes from being a 26-year-old NHL rookie? Thick skin. Brodeur has been through a lot in his career, and similar to goalies like Tim Thomas, Craig Anderson (even Curry) he has overcome obstacles every step of the way. Giving him the start was a perfect recipe for success, as MB31 had nothing to lose, everything to gain.

Early confidence was sustained for a full 60 minutes and along with the other ingredients, which always includes a few dazzling stops and a few lucky bounces, Brodeur became an overnight sensation. Oh great, people thought, another good Brodeur goalie. But I see those comments and I laugh – because Brodeur was always a pretty good goalie. And hey, I’m 27. If this month was my first as an NHL pro, I wouldn’t be complaining. There’s a lot of time left.

DEVAN DUBNYK

Again, what other choice does Pat Quinn have right now? Even though Devan Dubnyk has not won a game in his first four NHL starts, he’s not regarded as a strong or quality prospect right now. But if there’s little faith in Jeff Deslauriers right now, at least giving him some starts will boost his potential and give him experience.

Dubnyk is a big goalie with good net presence, but after watching him play over the last week, I’ll probably pull him off the Top-100 Rankings. He only won 18 out of 62 games in the AHL last season and doesn’t seem to have much more to his game other than size and adequate agility. To get an idea of what the Oilers are going through with their goaltending, they signed Colorado Eagles goalie Andrew Penner to an AHL contract and put him in Springfield.

ALEX AULD

Although Auld is not a prospect by any means, his chance to string together some consecutive starts has finally arrived. After a shootout win over Detroit on Saturday, Marc Crawford was quoted as saying Auld will get his chance to be Dallas’ new go-to guy. Auld is just 6-4-3 this year, but as an eight-year veteran, he has experienced this before.

“He is a guy that was hired to be a backup goaltender, but he’ll be given an opportunity to get on a run now,” Crawford said to a reporter following the shootout win against Detroit.

That means one thing and one thing only – consistent minutes for a capable goalie. And after I took the time to rant and rave about getting Michael Leighton some consistent minutes, I really hope you recognize the potential here. Auld has probably been lying dormant in many fantasy leagues, so scoop him up if he can fill a void on your team.

RAY EMERY

Emery was terrible in his first game back from injury against the Capitals on Sunday. He coughed up rebounds, failed to have active hands on plays in tight and had terrible angles and positioning on a few goals as well. You can pin the performance mainly on rust, but it begs the question of why he didn’t get a few more starts in Adirondack. It turns out the NHL’s new CBA has certain rules in place that didn’t allow Emery to stay in the AHL longer than he did.

That being said, I think the Flyers should continue to play Michael Leighton and let Emery handle the backup role until his next opportunity. He needs a lot of practice time right now. More importantly, he needs a strong work ethic in those practices. The good news for Flyers fans and fantasy owners is that he’s in jeopardy of losing his starting role for an even longer period of time if he doesn’t shape up quick.

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Optimization

Nov 30th

Posted by Justin in School of Block

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When Ray Emery’s season in Russia ended, I knew his play would lead to a shot at NHL redemption. I also knew that, regardless of his talent and ability, Emery would no doubt experience a set of mental highs and lows that could have very negative results. When October arrived, I was surprised that Flyers management had so much confidence in his ability, as they all but handed Emery the starting job without him having to prove much of anything. To me, actions speak louder than words, especially for someone in his situation.

Sure, Emery silenced even his toughest critics with some excellent play in October, but it was very early in a very long season. To me, part of the problem was that the Flyers didn’t give themselves any real buffer zone or backup plan. Nothing against Brian Boucher, but I could think of maybe five or six other goalies available at the time that could be pushing Emery harder for minutes. Now through 24 games for the Flyers, Emery has started 20 of them.

Nevertheless, things have worked out well so far. Emery has been consistent in his approach to handling the responsibility of being an NHL starter, both on and off the ice. Everything was fine and dandy during a five-game winning streak that stretched through the middle of November, until they headed west on a three-game road trip. All of a sudden, without warning, Emery’s game took a nose dive.

I was scouting the Avs/Flyers game last Monday with extreme interest, as it was my first time seeing Emery’s entire pre-game routine in real life. This routine was extremely over-active for a big goalie. It included a lot of foot and leg movement while standing in the slot during the national anthem, combined with an extravagant ritual that took place as soon as the singing ended. He immediately skated to the net and placed his head in the goal right beneath the crossbar. He held there for a good 4-5 seconds, then came back to life, put his helmet on and proceeded to hit the crossbar with his glove before the puck dropped. More than anything, it was a razzle-dazzle routine to fire him up.

From the first shot on goal, Emery’s hands were the source of his struggle. They were over-active, forcing him to mishandle shots up high. He over-reacted badly on a simple Paul Stastny wrist shot to his glove side, a player who was struggling to score. He had a lot of excess footwork during simple tracking plays in his zone and he never seemed to settle into a rhythm. The puck control problems continued until Emery was pulled after allowing four goals.

Every Tuesday on The Goalie Guild, we post an article by Shaun Smith from Absolute Mental Training. Now from someone who has provided sound goalie advice for years, let me be the first to tell you that his articles are pure gold. Not only are they resourceful for goalies of all ages, but also for any fantasy manager that will go beyond the norm to improve their goaltending decisions. Simply put, if you are reading this, you should be reading them.

As soon as I saw last Tuesday’s article about work ethic and saw the term Optimal Arousal Level, I nearly shouted out Emery’s name. A few minutes later, I rabidly e-mailed Shaun to get his thoughts on Emery’s struggles in the 5-4 loss to Colorado. I was not surprised at all with what he said. 

“I did watch the highlights and Emery was definitely not in his optimal arousal level,” he wrote. “The goals that Emery let in were brutal. Even some of the saves he was making were made to look harder because he was over-playing the puck and looked like he was trying to block too much.”

As you can tell, both of us know that Emery is a goalie with plenty of talent and solid technique, but mentally struggles in so many areas that it severely affects his fantasy value. It could be things like his work ethic, his lack of dedication to practicing like he plays, or his overall focus. Does he prepare like most mentally sound goaltenders do? It sure didn’t show when he was falling from grace in Ottawa.

Emery is struggling with his optimal arousal level right now and regardless of the reason for it happening, he’s starting to lose value in the fantasy realm. He also has one foot deeper in the grave by working with the same type of goalie coach that Brian Elliott had before his game got refined. The positioning that Emery has displayed over the course of the season is a little bit more of a blocking style, not the free-flowing hybrid style that dominates the position today. But that’s another article for another time, my dear goalie aficionados.

When it comes to your fantasy goalies, realize there’s a big difference between a pre-game routine that allows a goalie to reach a comfort zone and a routine that is just a bunch of random movements that end up exceeding an optimal arousal level. Do you know what your goalie’s optimal arousal level looks like? Can you tell if he’s “in the zone” or a step behind a lot of plays? Does he react to plays with composure, or is he wildly attacking the puck, with excessive movement and bad rebound control?

Read Shaun’s article so that you too can understand what Optimal Arousal Level looks and feels like from a goalie’s point of view. I promise, if you watch your goalies close enough, you’ll be able to discern the signs and symptoms just like any goalie scout – and then benefit from knowing whether or not your goalie is playing at his best or just playing well enough to scrape by with some wins.

J-S GIGUERE

I will be the first to come out and say I’m eating my words regarding J-S Giguere. Not that I thought he was incapable of winning games, but the last week was beyond impressive. He went 3-0-1 in his last four starts and only allowed seven goals. He did not allow a power play goal against and also has one awesome shutout. His shot totals have dropped each game, going from 43 to 30 to 28 to 26, so he’s not over-worked mentally or physically either.

The most impressive aspect was Giguere’s ability to clear out the drama regarding his statements to the press, hit the refresh button and play poised, focused hockey. It’s a sign of remarkable mental toughness and part of what makes him such a strong competitor. I don’t see anything different technically speaking, other than he’s playing with a lot of confidence now and making the big saves…and a lot of them.

From a fantasy perspective, this may seem like a really tough consideration for many managers. Giguere is just hanging out there like a juicy grape on the vine of good and evil. Will he keep this play up and re-claim the starting role or will he come back down to earth and give way to Jonas Hiller once again? To be honest, that’s not the most pertinent question right now. What you want to know is exactly HOW LONG Giguere’s great play will last.

I would say you can depend on Giguere for another week. Don’t be afraid to pluck him up, as there’s very little risk involved considering he hasn’t been on many managers’ rosters up until last week. You probably already have two or three quality goalies, so why not add another and let it ride for a week? If you don’t have faith in his consistency (I personally don’t) then try trading him while his value is high. Some of you might sign him and use him wisely, while others might sign him just to package in a trade. Regardless of your motive, he’s definitely worth picking up. 

THE WORKHORSES

Most of you know that I’m not a stats guy, but I thought it would be interesting to look at goalies that have played 20+ games and how they have performed in their last five games. So here are the top 12 goalies in minutes played, their total shots against for the whole season and their records over the last five games.

 

The noticeable correlation here is that the veteran workhorses have the better numbers. Anderson, Quick and Emery are struggling while Brodeur, Nabokov (we explained his durability last week, but he also allowed three goals against in each of the last five games) and Kiprusoff, are flourishing. Bryzgalov benefits from a much lower shots against ratio thanks to Dave Tippett’s system and Fleury’s record looks nice thanks to a lot of offensive support.

Although stats will never really show a correlation between the grid above and the same thing for goalies that have played 10-15 games, it’s still interesting to think about. One thing’s for sure, it’s never good to be atop the shots against category as well as minutes played. Remember last week when I said that if Anderson played three of four games, it was one too many? Well, he played all four of them, including back-to-back games against Minnesota.

Once again, the Avalanche plays four games this week, all of which are on the road. How many games will Anderson play this time around and what will his numbers look like when the road trip is over? 

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